Thursday, December 17, 2020

Technical Analyzer

Mah Sing (8583)
Sector: Property
Sub-sector: Property
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.94
Levels: MYR0.98, MYR1.06
Exit: MYR0.88
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Gadang (9261)
Sector: Construction
Sub-sector: Construction
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.48
Levels: MYR0.51, MYR0.55
Exit: MYR0.44
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Lay Hong (9385)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Agricultural Products
Outlook: Breakout MYR0.38
Levels: MYR.43, MYR0.47
Exit: MYR0.34
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Ho Hup Construction (5169)
Sector: Construction
Sub-sector: Construction
Outlook: Breakout MYR0.485
Levels: MYR0.52, MYR0.55
Exit: MYR0.46
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Datasonic (5216)
Sector: Technology
Sub-sector: Digital Svcs
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.60
Levels: MYR0.63, MYR0.68
Exit: MYR0.55
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Prestar (9873)
Sector: Industrial Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Metals
Outlook: Breakout MYR0.77
Levels: MYR0.84, MYR0.90
Exit: MYR0.70
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

PA Resources (7225)
Sector: Industrial Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Metals
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.195
Levels: MYR.21, MYR0.23
Exit: MYR0.165
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

TFP Solutions (0145)
Sector: Technology
Sub-sector: Digital Svcs
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.18
Levels: MYR0.20, MYR0.22
Exit: MYR0.15
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Genting Malaysia (4715)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Travel, Leisure & Hospitality
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR2.80
Levels: MYR3.00, MYR3.20
Exit: MYR2.60
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Berjaya Sports Toto (1562)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Travel, Leisure & Hospitality
Outlook: Breakout MYR2.20
Levels: MYR2.30, MYR2.50
Exit: MYR2.13
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia (2836)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Food & Beverages
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR22.80
Levels: MYR24.00, MYR25.80
Exit: MYR21.00
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

TRC Synergy (5054)
Sector: Construction
Sub-sector: Construction
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.36
Levels: MYR0.38, MYR0.42
Exit: MYR0.33
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Superlon (7235)
Sector: Industrial Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Building Materials
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.98
Levels: MYR1.05, MYR1.13
Exit: MYR0.90
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Jaycorp (7152)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Household Goods
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR1.53
Levels: MYR1.56, MYR1.65
Exit: MYR1.44
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Malton (6181)
Sector: Property
Sub-sector: Property
Outlook: Breakout MYR0.50
Levels: MYR0.54, MYR0.57
Exit: MYR0.465
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Optimax (0222)
Sector: Health Care
Sub-sector: Health Care Providers
Outlook: Breakout MYR0.80
Levels: MYR0.865, MYR0.90
Exit: MYR0.765
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Technical tracker - HLIB Retail Research – 16 Dec 2020

MISC (RM6.61 - HLIB Research TP RM7.69) - Values resurface after recent rout 

MISC is an attractive value play among blue chips, supported by undemanding valuations of 0.89x P/B (-19% below 10Y 1.1x) and 15.8x FY21 P/E (-8% below 10Y 17.2x), decent DY at 4.5% FY21E and strong parentage support from Petronas (with a 51% stake) 

We believe that MISC would be able to weather through the fluctuations in charter rates for its LNG and Petroleum segment through its capacity expansions and long-term charters for its LNG segment. 
Meanwhile, its 6 VLEC contracts secured in July will further boost the group’s sustainable and recurring income streams

Moreover, freight rates could be heading toward an upward inflection point in FY21, driven by the Covid-19 vaccines otpimism and additional US stimulus to kickstart the economic recovery

Trend Potential downtrend reversal
R1-R2: 6.88-7.27
LT objective: 7.53
S1-S2: 6.50-6.38
Cut: 6.31 

Corporate News

 •Komarkcorp Bhd has entered into a distributorship agreement with LKL International Bhd to sell and distribute its disposable medical grade face masks worldwide. The distributorship agreement was signed by the subsidiaries of both companies, namely Komark Mask (M) Sdn Bhd and LKL Advance Metaltech Sdn Bhd. Komarkcorp, involved in printing labels and packaging solutions, in June this year diversified into mask and personal protection equipment (PPE) manufacturing via the incorporation of Komark Mask to carry out the new business. The company currently has three operating mask lines and is about to install a further five lines within the next 60 days to cater to growing export demand.

•Kossan Rubber Industries Bhd has found 427 out of its total 7,004 employees infected with Covid-19, and it has suspended operations at one of its factories from Dec 4. This would result in an estimated 25% production loss over a two-week period. Group founder Tan Sri Lim Kuang Sia, in confirming the matter with theedgemarketscom today, said the impact from this temporary operation halt would be just 2% of its annual profit.

•Sarawak-based oil and gas (O&G) integrated support services provider Ocean Vantage Holdings Bhd is collaborating with Toyo Engineering & Construction Sdn Bhd to jointly bid for the tender for engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) works for an oil storage terminal project by Senari Synergy located in Senari Synergy Industrial Complex, in Kuching, Sarawak. Its wholly-owned unit Ocean Vantage Engineering Sdn Bhd signed an unincorporated consortium agreement (UCA) with Toyo yesterday. The agreement is valid until March 18, 2021.

•Kumpulan Kenderaan Malaysia Bhd (KKM) has ceased to be a substantial shareholder of Konsortium Transnasional Bhd, after selling 20 million shares, which is equivalent to a 4.96% stake, in the bus operator. According to Konsortium Transnasional, the shares were sold on Monday (Dec 14). However, the group did not disclose the transaction price. The company's share price settled at 17 sen on Dec 14, which would value the lot it sold at an estimated RM3.4 million. Post-divestment, KKM is left with 9.31 million shares or 2.31% in Konsortium Transnasional.

•G Capital Bhd’s 90%-owned subsidiary Gunung Hydropower Sdn Bhd’s has received the Sustainable Energy Development Authority’s (SEDA) nod for a higher feed-in tariff (FiT) rate for its small 10MW hydropower project in Sungai Perak, Salu. The certificate for SEDA's feed-in approval, which will increase its FiT rate from 25 sen per kWh to 28.98 sen per kWh, was received on Monday. In addition, the contract is effective from the scheduled FiT date of Dec 14 up till December 2025 while the yearly energy yield has been increased to 68 million kWh from 67.77 kWh.

•Lion Industries Corp Bhd (LICB) will take over China-based property developer Well Morning Ltd, in an RM210.35 million debt settlement by Lion Diversified Holdings Bhd (LDHB), which is currently in liquidation. Of the total RM210.35 million outstanding debt, LDHB owes RM26.79 million to Antara Steel Mills Sdn Bhd and RM35.17 million to Lion Waterway Logistics Sdn Bhd, both being subsidiaries of LICB, as well as RM148.39 million to Posim Marketing Sdn Bhd, which is a 74% indirect subsidiary of LICB. Well Morning, a wholly-owned subsidiary of LDHB, in turn wholly owns Changshu Lion Enterprise Co Ltd, a property developer based in China. LDHB was ordered by the High Court of Malaya to be wound up under the provisions of the Companies Act 2016 on Oct 15, 2019.

•Flexible packaging manufacturer Daibochi Bhd’s net profit for the first quarter ended Oct 31, 2020 (1QFY21) rose 16.51% to RM12.79 million from RM10.98 million a year ago, driven by higher sales to major consumer brands. Meanwhile, the group’s revenue for 1QFY21 grew 2.7% to RM156.68 million from RM152.56 million, led by contributions from packaging sales in the Malaysian market, which expanded 5.1% to RM88.5 million from RM84.2 million previously. The group did not declare any dividend for this quarter.

•Mah Sing Group Bhd is considering listing its manufacturing division — which includes its new rubber glove business — in Hong Kong. Mah Sing executive director Datuk Steven Ng said the group is exploring the listing of its manufacturing division within the next five years. Ng said the group’s manufacturing division is currently 100% owned by Mah Sing and would be under separate management under the new tentative listed entity. The group’s manufacturing division also has aims of producing other medical devices, which will be parked under the entity if it ends up being listed.

•OKA Corp Bhd has temporarily shut its Senai factory in Johor after two of its workers tested positive for Covid-19. The closure will be until Dec 21. The precast concrete products manufacturer with a 200-strong workforce said today that the two patients are now under medical care at a government hospital. The capacity loss from the temporary closure is estimated to be less than 0.7% of the group’s total annual output, it said. The Senai factory, it said, is one of five factories the group owns.

•* TA Enterprise Bhd (TAE)* said it has received a notice of an unconditional mandatory takeover offer from Datuk Tony Tiah Thee Kian to acquire all remaining ordinary shares in TAE not already owned by him at a cash offer price of 65.5 sen each, after Tiah and persons acting in concert with him triggered the creeping threshold, whereby their collective shareholdings in TAE will be increased from 42.36% to 59.78%. Separately, the group announced that it has received valid acceptances of 5.02 billion offer shares or 94.38% of the total number of issued shares in TA Global Bhd (TAG) on its conditional voluntary offer for shares of the property developer.

•* Widad Group Bhd* has inked a memorandum of collaboration with Rinani Dynamic Sdn Bhd in the distribution, marketing and selling of the Covid-19 vaccine known as Vxa-Cov2-1 and other products developed by US-based Vaxart Inc in Malaysia. Widad said Rinani on Nov 29 was appointed by Hong Kong-based Majoritas Global Ltd as its exclusive partner in Malaysia, to negotiate with relevant authorities and parties on the terms and conditions for testing, evaluating, placing on the market, contracting, financing and purchasing of the vaccine and other products in Malaysia.

•* Top Glove Corp Bhd's* executive chairman Tan Sri Dr Lim Wee Chai bought a total of 3.1 million shares in two transactions in his own capacity on the open market yesterday. The block of shares cost him RM19.98 million. Some 1.56 million shares were bought at RM6.39 per share, while another 1.54 million shares were transacted at RM6.49 per share. In less than a week, Lim, who is also the controlling shareholder, has spent RM49.75 million on buying Top Glove shares. He bought 4.28 million Top Glove shares for RM29.77 million last Thursday. Lim's direct interest is at 26.17% and indirect stake is at 8.63%. Besides Lim, two other parties also mopping up shares in the world's largest rubber glove maker on the open market were Tropicana Corp Bhd and Top Glove itself. Tropicana announced that it spent an additional RM20.05 million to buy 3.07 million Top Glove shares via its wholly-owned subsidiary Desiran Reality Sdn Bhd yesterday. Top Glove also bought back some 576,900 shares worth RM3.63 million at RM6.30 per share yesterday. The group has spent RM123.5 million on share buy-back so far this month. In contrast, the Employees Provident Fund (EPF) continued to trim its stake in Top Glove. EPF disposed of a total of 846,400 shares last Thursday, after the provident fund sold 3.42 million shares on Dec 9 and another 12 million shares on Dec 8.

•In response to an unusual market activity (UMA) query posed by Bursa Malaysia, Guocoland (Malaysia) Bhd said the group is not aware of any corporate development, rumour or report concerning its business, affairs and possible explanation that would have caused a spike in its share prices.

•* Fraser & Neave Holdings Bhd (F&N)* announced it is buying three food and beverage (F&B) companies — Sri Nona Food Industries Sdn Bhd, Sri Nona Industries Sdn Bhd and Lee Shun Hing Sauce Industries Sdn Bhd — for RM60 million, from Siew Yun Sing and Tong Saw Man. The three companies mainly make and sell rice cakes (ketupat), condiments (oyster sauce and paste), beverages (ginger tea powder), desserts (pudding and jelly powder), and jams and spreads under the “NONA” and “Lee Shun Hing” brands. 

•* George Kent (Malaysia) Bhd’s* net profit for the third quarter ended Oct 31, 2020 (3QFY21) was kept steady at RM10.65 million, a marginal 4% higher than the RM10.26 million it made a year ago, underpinned by strong water meter sales. Meanwhile, revenue rose 8.22% to RM78.91 million from RM72.91 million.

•* United Malacca Bhd* posted a net profit of RM7.43 million for the second quarter ended Oct 31, 2020 (2QFY21), down from RM36.89 million a year ago, as the previous year registered a gain of RM49.3 million from the disposal of non-current assets held for sale. Its revenue meanwhile, rose 27% to RM97.95 million from RM76.99 million previously, amid higher average crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel prices. The group declared a first interim dividend of three sen per share, to be paid on Feb 4, 2021.

•* Econpile Holdings Bhd* wholly-owned subsidiary, Econpile (M) Sdn Bhd, has bagged an US$85.7 million (RM347.6 million) contract from MMC International Inc Ltd to undertake piling and substructure works for an integrated entertainment complex in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. The project will be completed within 30 months from the date of commencement.

•* Deleum Bhd* has confirmed that two senior executives working for the company's subsidiary, Deleum Primera Sdn Bhd (DPSB), were interviewed by the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC), as reported by theedgemarkets yesterday. It said the relevant senior executives are currently assisting MACC with its investigation into an alleged illegal scheme. It revealed its internal investigations discovered that the scheme had caused loss to DPSB, as set out in its Statement of Claim filed on Nov 5, 2020.

•* Uzma Bhd*, via its subsidiary Setegap Ventures Petroleum Sdn Bhd (SVP), has secured a two-year contract extension worth RM200 million from Petronas Carigali Sdn Bhd for the provision of coiled tubing and services (CTU). The contract was originally awarded to the company in 2015. The extension period is from Dec 1 this year until Nov 30, 2022.

•* Apollo Food Holdings Bhd* hopes to resume operations on Dec 18 or earlier, once it has completed the disinfection of its factories to curb the spread of Covid-19, following the closure of two premises of its wholly-owned subsidiary Apollo Food Industries (M) Sdn Bhd, which is based in Larkin. It said it had taken stringent precautionary measures including the temporary ceasing of operations from Dec 9, to test employees at its premises, as well as for disinfection purposes.

•IHH Healthcare Bhd said it is ready to administer the coronavirus vaccine, once they are rolled out in the 10 countries it operates in. Its managing director and CEO Dr Kelvin Loh Chi-Keon said the company has a trained staff count of 55,000 across 80 hospitals it runs from Turkey to Singapore, as well as cold-storage facilities required to store the shots. 

•Bursa Malaysia Bhd's Bursa Malaysia Derivatives (BMD) said it will relaunch the Mini FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mid 70 Index Futures (FM70) contract, which will incorporate several amendments to the contract specifications. The revamped FM70 contract will be made available to traders from Dec 14. Launched in 2018, FM70 is a cash-settled ringgit-denominated futures contract which tracks the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mid 70 Index as its underlying instrument.

•Guocoland (Malaysia) Bhd group managing director Datuk Edmund Kong Woon Jun is resigning from his post effective Jan 1, 2021, after being at the helm for four years. The group said Kong is resigning to “pursue other business opportunities”. The group has yet to announce a successor to Kong.

 •JHM Consolidation Bhd is acquiring a 5.59ha vacant leasehold land in Penang for RM27.06 million, cash, to expand its business into the manufacturing of telecommunication equipment.

JHM said the acquisition of the land is to enable the company to expand its business into telecommunication equipment manufacturing industries that serve multiple multinational corporations in North American, Europe and Asia, tapping into the growing demand for Internet of Things application, as well as Cloud/Data Center.

•Ipmuda Bhd, which was slapped with an unusual market activity query by the bourse earlier today, highlighted recent changes in its board of directors, substantial shareholders’ shareholdings, as well as contract wins in its response to Bursa Securities.

Ipmuda said Tan Sri Abu Sahid Mohamed had ceased as its substantial shareholder on Dec 3, following the disposal of 2.55 million shares by Maju Holdings Sdn Bhd, as well as changes in shareholdings of parties related to the businessman, namely Maju Holdings, Beroz Nikmal Mirdin and Nurhaida Abu Sahid. Ipmuda also noted that its board had fixed the issue price for the first tranche of its private placement exercise at 56 sen per share earlier this week, and that it had bagged an engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning (EPCC) contract worth RM78 million from Coara Marang Sdn Bhd in September.

•It also pointed to changes in its board of directors in June, when Beroz Nikmal was appointed as executive chairman in place of Abu Sahid, while Jeefri Muhamad was appointed as chief executive officer, following the resignation of Datuk Sim Choo Thiam as managing director. Ekovest Bhd’s mandatory general offer (MGO) to buy out shares in durian planter PLS Plantation Bhd at 95 sen apiece must be a good deal, judging by the overwhelming acceptance to the offer. Minority shareholders who collectively held 122.96 million shares or a 33.85% stake, have accepted the offer. This has bumped up Ekovest’s shareholding in PLS to 91.24%. This block of shares is valued at RM116.8 million at the offer price. Additionally, the construction group also holds 74.91% of PLS’ warrants, following the closing of the MGO at 5pm today.

Palm Oil Drops From 8-Year High as Indonesia Mulls Less Biofuel

Axiata (AXIATA MK): Bangladesh Unit Borrows $95M From Ifc

Gamuda (GAM MK): Reinstated Underweight At Jpmorgan; Pt Myr2.80

IJM (IJM MK): Reinstated Underweight At Jpmorgan; Pt Myr1.30

Kossan briefing update

1. 427 workers are COVID-19 positive. Kossan shared that 427 of its employees are tested positive. Note that Kossan has started testing its 7004 workers from 4-10 December.

2. Action taken by Kossan The Company has transported the positive cases to hospitals as per Ministry of Health’s instruction. A thorough disinfection of all areas where the affected individuals have been present has also been carried out. For those under quarantine due to close contact, a second PCR test will be done on 16 and 17 Dec with the result to be known on 18-Dec.

3. Plans to test 20% of its workers every 2 weeks going forward. The Company believes that this is necessary as all of its employees who are tested COVID-19 positive are asymptomatic. 

4. Accommodation space for workers exceed ILO standard Kossan shared that its average accommodation space per worker is 46 sq ft. This is above the requirement of 38.75 sq ft per worker set by International Labour Organization (ILO).

5. About 1% of total annual output volume affected. 25% if its capacity is affected for 2 weeks. This works out to be around 0.96% of total annual output. Earnings impact is estimated to be around 2% of FY20 earnings.

Friday, December 11, 2020

政局不明 外资缺席 EPF现金减 明年马股涨势料受抑

尽管马股在2020年表现强劲,艾芬黄氏研究预期在政治不明朗、外资料不会重返、雇员公积金局(EPF)入市资金减少等因素影响下,2021年综指涨势将受到抑制,并持续处于窄幅横摆窘境,年终目标为1730点。

艾芬黄氏研究表示,2020年注定是令人印象深刻的一年,一场冠病疫情成为全球大问题,不仅拖慢全球经济,也打击股市表现。不过,全球中央银行和政府透过积极开展量化宽松的货币和财政政策,让热钱涌向黄金和高风险资产类别来取得更高回酬。

“同时,在大量振兴经济配套扶持下,全球股市快速从3月低位复苏,其中富时综合指数已从低位复苏33.8%,今年至今增长2.7%,表现超越多数区域股市。”

该行指出,以富时综指成份股来看,若剔除涨势强劲的手套股,其他成份股的跌幅已显著收窄,但考量市场资金流、估值和复苏前景,马股风险回酬已趋向平衡。

“我们预见在疲弱马币、外资流入有限、马股卓越表现和公积金局投资减少等因素影响下,大资本股进一步上攻难度不低,可能抑制富时综指涨势。”

艾芬黄氏研究认为,在下列情况下,今年上半年马股将游移在“忐忑”的对立情绪中。

1.全球新一轮封锁可能危及经济复苏

虽然股市已反映生活重返正常希望,但现实却是全球冠病确诊数量持续飙升,这大大提高各国落实封锁措施可能,恐打击家庭和企业,令短期经济可能受到负面冲击。因此,艾芬黄氏研究审慎看待全球经济强劲复苏潜能。

2.富时综指强劲表现

企业盈利今年萎缩12.1%后,艾芬黄氏研究预期2021年企业盈利将强劲反弹30.4%,主要反映低比较基础,以及手套公司强劲盈利增长。

“马股本益比估值已高出5年中值3个标准差。就算扣除手套领域,综指表现仍超越多数区域同侪。考量到马股强劲表现,富时综指未来催化因素有限。同时,今年3至12月暂停的卖空活动重新启动,也可能抑制短期涨势。”

3.游资供应者缺席  

政府在2021年财政预算案宣布,允许面对失业和减薪的公积金局会员从第一户头提款1万或最多6万令吉,预期符合资格的会员多达800万,可能提取700亿令吉。同时,雇员公积金缴纳率也将从11%减至9%,可能减少公积金局现金流93亿令吉。

在过去5年,公积金局净资金流入达203亿令吉,因此艾芬黄氏研究预见股市新投资可能趋向挑战,而股市一旦出现强劲涨势也将获套利活动稀释。

4.政治不明朗因素

沙巴补选延后,已向市场释出短期不会提前大选的讯号。艾芬黄氏研究说,一旦疫情受控,政府仍可能提前大选,而这样的不明朗因素将抑制短期资金流入。

今年以来,大马资金外撤242亿令吉,连续3年录得净外资撤离。同时,该行预期明年经常账将持续处于疲势,可能抑制马币升值,令外资流入前景持续暗淡。

企业盈利料劲扬30%

艾芬黄氏研究表示,今年第三季企业财报表现令人惊喜,追踪的48%企业财报捎来惊喜。在种植和手套股推动下,马股营运盈利(EBITDA)赚益达到24.7%,看好2021年营运盈利将进一步增长,并推动每股盈利强劲增长30.4%。

“尽管面对疫情冲击,电子制造服务、种植、橡胶和科技领域今年盈利增长并未受到干扰,我们预期涨势将延续至2021年,其余领域在低基础下也将取得增长。”

此外,随着速柏玛(SUPERMX,7106,主板医疗保健组)纳入富时综指,该行上调富时综指2020年每股盈利目标至萎缩12.1%,而2021年则有望强劲增长30.4%,但2022年将萎缩0.9%。

“不过,若扣除手套股贡献,2021年盈利将较2019年减少约5%,反映出马股企业盈利并未广泛复苏。”

明年综指年终目标1730

艾芬黄氏研究认为,缺乏重大催化因素下,预见富时综指将持续窄幅横摆,维持“中和”评级,明年富时综指年终目标为1730点。

“不过,2021年潜在上市的新股,包括U Mobile、MMC机构(MMCCORP,2194,主板交通及物流组)旗下港口资产、依海控股(Iskandar Waterfront Holdings)等大型企业有望带来一些激励。”

尽管如此,基于马股涨势有限,艾芬黄氏研究相信市值偏好策略将奏效,但同时也需要仔细选股。

“我们的投资首选名单分为复苏、5G、贸易转移(电子制造服务和)和素质4大主题,涵盖永旺信贷(AEONCR,5139,主板金融服务组)、齐力工业(PMETAL,8869,主板工业产品服务组)、国家能源(TENAGA,5347,主板公用事业组)、益纳利美昌(INARI,0166,主板科技组)、马电讯(TM,4863,主板电讯媒体组)、丰山集团(MTAG,0213,创业板工业产品服务组)、贺特佳(HARTA,5168,主板医疗保健组)、全利资源(QL,7084,主板消费产品服务组)和森德公司(SCIENTX,4731,主板工业产品服务组)。”

领域方面,该行上调电子制造服务、建筑材料、公用事业和科技评级至“加码”,但维持石油与天然气、银行与金融服务、电讯、产业、种植等领域“中和”评级。

中低资本股料续跑出

艾芬黄氏研究认为,在经常账疲弱,以及马币潜在走贬下,过去3年缺席的外资料不会重返,加上公积金局参与度减少,将抑制大资本股涨势。

“我们相信明年富时综指将窄幅震荡,但在散户入市意愿强劲下,相信中低资本股和特选主题股将吸引他们的目光。”

艾芬黄氏研究说,当马股在今年3月触底后,小资本指数表现持续超越富时综指,预期在增长前景和估值诱人2大因素扶持下,超越大市表现可能持续。

“尽管复苏角度可能持续,同时市场也将专注‘沉底’和价值股,但我们怀疑其中可能存在价值陷阱,特别是银行、博彩和交通等盈利能见度不高的领域。如果盈利没有出现明显改善,任何涨势都将受抑。”

更看好增长主题

因此,相比价值股,该行更看好增长主题,特别是电子制造服务和科技领域潜能。

“此外,在低利率环境,以及投资者寻找高回酬资产下,我们相信今年高周息率股潜存进一步增长空间。”

Technical Analyzer

Gamuda (5398)
Sector: Construction
Sub-sector: Construction
Outlook: Breakout MYR3.85
Levels: MYR4.00, MYR4.20
Exit: MYR3.70
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

MR D.I.Y Group (5296)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Retailers
Outlook: Breakout MYR3.00
Levels: MYR3.16, MYR3.30
Exit: MYR2.68
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Malayan Flour Mills (3662)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Food & Beverages
Outlook: Breakout MYR0.70
Levels: MYR0.75, MYR0.79
Exit: MYR0.66
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Parlo (0022)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Travel, Leisure & Hospitality
Outlook: Breakout MYR0.63
Levels: MYR0.69, MYR0.74
Exit: MYR0.56
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

CCK Consolidated (7035) (RM0.625): Technical Buy
Targets: RM0.67, 0.77
Stop: RM0.56

TCS Group (0221) (RM0.535): Technical Buy 
Targets: RM0.59, 0.65
Stop: RM0.45

DUFU (RM3.17-Not-rated) - Riding on the strong HDD markets. Dufu anticipates another strong 4Q20 results (translating into a better FY20 vs FY19), driven largely by the high HDD demand from the enterprise sector and cloud storage. Dufu’s risk mitigation strategy in 2015 to diversify into the non-HDD segment (offering high value creation and carrying better margins than the HDD segment) has started to bear fruits. Valuation is undemanding at 32x trailing P/E (48% below peers), supported by a RM26m net cash. Trend Pending a downtrend line breakout.

R1-R2: 3.30-3.50
LT objective: 3.80 
S1-S2: 3.00-2.90
Cut: 2.88 

Corporate News

 •In response to Bursa Malaysia's unusual market activity query yesterday, Cymao Holdings Bhd said the group is in the final stage of discussion with several parties on a potential new viable business venture to reduce the plywood maker's reliance on its core business. Cymao said in light of the plywood industry remaining challenging, the group has been exploring new business opportunities to expand its core business or diversify its businesses to reduce reliance on the existing core business, as well as to expand the company's earnings base.

•AirAsia Group Bhd group CEO Tan Sri Tony Fernandes was quoted as saying that the company is currently in discussion with India-based conglomerate Tata Group on the future of their joint venture, AirAsia (India) Ltd. Fernandes was quoted as saying at a CAPA Centre for Aviation live event yesterday that India's aviation industry has been a competitive market which was tough for outsiders to come into. 

•Bermaz Auto Bhd’s (BAuto) net profit for the second quarter ended Oct 31, 2020 rose 22% year-on-year to RM24.79 million versus RM20.39 million, boosted by improvement in domestic sales. Revenue climbed 31% y-o-y to RM599.84 million, compared with RM457.17 million a year ago.

In light of better earnings, BAuto declared a second interim dividend of 1.25 sen per share for the financial year ending April 30, 2021, which will be paid on Feb 5 next year. This is lower than the 2.75 sen per share paid a year ago. On a quarterly basis, BAuto’s net profit jumped 168% from RM9.25 million in the preceding quarter, as revenue rose 34% from RM448.894 million last quarter. 

•Poh Kong Holdings Bhd had a strong kick-off to its new financial year with an 81.1% jump in net profit to RM14.64 million for the first quarter ended Oct 31, 2020, from RM8.08 million a year ago, as its retail business saw an uptrend, following the relaxation of the movement control order. Earnings per share rose to 3.57 sen from 1.97 sen. Quarterly revenue rose 8.2% to RM221.91 million from RM204.99 million. No dividend was declared for the quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Poh Kong's first quarter net profit is higher by 82.7% compared with RM8.01 million in the preceding quarter, while revenue was up 23.8% from RM179.3 million.

•BIMB Holdings Bhd (BHB) has obtained approval from the Minister of Finance and Bank Negara Malaysia for its proposed internal reorganisation and distribution and capital repayment, which will pave the way for the transfer of its listing to its subsidiary, Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd. Upon completion of the proposed exercise, BHB’s listing status will be transferred to Bank Islam, which will emerge as the one and only full-fledged Islamic financial institution to be listed in the region which will enhance its corporate stature. The listing is said will allow Bank Islam to better position itself in the Islamic finance and Islamic capital market and capitalise on the growth of both markets, in its efforts to expand its customer base. 

•After the massive share buy-back exercise undertaken by Top Glove Corp Bhd since September, its chairman Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai has picked up the baton by buying 4.28 million shares in his own capacity. The shares were bought in two transactions yesterday and today, but the transacted prices were not disclosed. Following the purchase, Lim has a direct interest of 26.13% in the world's largest glove maker, plus an indirect interest of 8.63%. 

•UMW Holdings Bhd’s automotive segment is on track to meet its full-year sales target, supported by strong sales in November 2020 by both subsidiary UMW Toyota Motor Sdn Bhd (UMWT) and associate company Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd (Perodua). The group said the automotive segment had steadily recovered from the adverse impact of the Covid-19 containment measures earlier this year, with demand boosted by the sales tax exemption incentive announced by the government, effective June 15 to Dec 31, 2020. It said UMWT is poised to exceed its revised sales target of 53,000 units for the year, after selling 6,267 units in November 2020, which brought total sales to 50,074 units for the first 11 months of this year. 

•KUB Malaysia Bhd (KUB) said the fulfilment of the conditions under the Sale and Purchase Agreement signed between its indirect wholly-owned subsidiary KUB Agro Holdings Sdn Bhd, and Beradin Plantation Sdn Bhd, has been extended by 30 days until Jan 8, 2021. Under the agreement made on June 10, KUB Agro Holdings had proposed to dispose of two oil palm estates in Kluang, Johor to Beradin Plantation for RM158 million cash. 

•Berjaya Land Bhd (BLand), controlled by tycoon Tan Sri Vincent Tan, has continued to accumulate shares in convenience store chain operator 7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings Bhd over the past three months. BLand said its wholly-owned subsidiary Nural Enterprise Sdn Bhd acquired a total of 8.22 million shares, representing about 0.73% equity interest in 7-Eleven Malaysia in the open market between Sept 11 and Dec 8. The shares were acquired for a total cash consideration of RM10.96 million or an average of RM1.33 per share. As a result, BLand and its subsidiaries now have a 5.28% stake in 7-Eleven Malaysia.

Bermaz Auto Berhad - Sales recovery shifting to higher gear (Maintain Add with a lower TP of RM1.70)

Lee Swee Kiat Group - A value-accretive collaboration with Cuckoo (Maintain Add with a higher TP of RM1.60)

Agribusiness - Higher imports cushioned stock decline (Maintain Neutral)

Thursday, December 10, 2020

Technical Analyzer

Taliworks Corporation (8524)
Sector: Utilities
Sub-sector: Gas, Water & Multi-utilities
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.83
Levels: MYR0.855, MYR0.90
Exit: MYR0.79
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Dayang Enterprise (5141)
Sector: Energy
Sub-sector: Energy Infrastructure, Equipment & Svcs
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR1.28
Levels: MYR1.33, MYR1.38
Exit: MYR1.15
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

SDS Group (0212)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Food & Beverages
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.235
Levels: MYR0.26, MYR0.285
Exit: MYR0.21
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Master-Pack Group (7029)
Sector: Industrial Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Packaging Materials
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR1.96
Levels: MYR2.05, MYR2.20
Exit: MYR1.82
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Corporate News

 •The government has decided to withdraw the approval of indirect property acquisition by Tamaco Plantation Sdn Bhd from TH Plantations Bhd on Dec 4, for further scrutiny and other factors. The government maintained that the indirect property acquisition application by Tamaco through the subscription of 100% shares from two TH Plantations subsidiaries — Bumi Suria Ventures Sdn Bhd and Maju Warisanmas Sdn Bhd — was subject to property acquisition guidelines which have been in effect since March 1, 2014. The guidelines stipulated that dilution of properties by Bumiputera interests via direct or indirect acquisition by non-Bumiputera interests is based on retention of at least 30% equity ownership for the latter.

•India-based conglomerate Tata Group will stop dues payment by AirAsia (India) Ltd to AirAsia Group Bhd, if the latter does not provide funding to their low-cost airline joint venture before Dec 31, 2020, The Economic Times reported, citing recently-added clauses in the AirAsia India shareholder agreement. According to the report, Tata will also start deducting the dues and setting them off against equity shares in AirAsia India, if its JV partner AirAsia Group is unable to bring in funds by subscribing to a rights offer of at least 300 crore rupee (about RM166 million).

•* Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd (MRCB)* will be participating in the United Nations Global Compact’s CFO Taskforce. The group said its membership in the task force reinforces its commitment to pursuing the Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs), and it will be able to provide an Asean perspective on developing strategies to accelerate the delivery of the SDGs within the private sector. MRCB’s chief corporate officer Amarjit Chhina is the only member from Malaysia and the first in Asean to be invited to join the CFO Taskforce. There, he will be working with peers from other companies worldwide on a two-year programme to implement the CFO Principles on Integrated SDG Investments and Finance. 

•* Top Glove Corp Bhd's* first-quarter (1QFY21) net profit surged to RM2.38 billion from RM111.43 million a year earlier, as revenue rose to RM4.76 billion from RM1.21 billion, underpinned by continued strong global rubber glove demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Top Glove declared an interim dividend of 16.5 sen a share to reward its approximately 100,000 public shareholders. Top Glove said it attained the highest ever quarterly sales revenue of RM4.76 billion in 1QFY21, representing an increase of 294% compared with 1QFY20. Separately, Top Glove executive chairman Tan Sri Dr Lim Wee Chai said he expects the production lines in the group's temporarily-closed 28 factories in Klang to be fully operational within the next two- to three weeks. "Seven factories have resumed their operations since yesterday under stage one. Hopefully, we can start stage two with another seven factories to resume work by this weekend," he said. The remaining 14 factories will recommence activities in the following two weeks in stages three and four, Lim added.

•* Kumpulan Powernet Bhd (KPower)* has bagged a contract worth RM296 million for a mini-hydropower plant in Perak. The group said its wholly-owned subsidiary KPower Engineering Sdn Bhd had received and accepted a letter of award yesterday from Kangsar Hidro Sdn Bhd to undertake the engineering, design, procurement, construction, commissioning and completion of a mini-hydropower plant, with a total capacity of 27.3MW in Sungai Singor, Perak.

•* My EG Services Bhd (MyEG)* is planning to raise up to RM407 million via placement to fund the development of hostels for foreign workers under an ongoing project, develop healthcare-related services, and to buy fixed assets like kiosks for the online renewal of car and motorcycle road tax under its e-government concession business. It intends to place out up to 220 million new shares that represent up to 6.29% of its total issued shares to third-party investors to be identified. 

•* Public Bank Bhd* has denied any involvement in a joint venture with G Capital Bhd to set up a new full-fledged commercial bank in Cambodia. Public Bank clarified that one of the parties involved in the venture, Datuk Phan Ying Tong, was acting in his own capacity, as he had resigned from all of his positions in the bank. Yesterday, G Capital announced it has entered into a heads of agreement with Phan and Cambodian firm E S Packaging Co Ltd to jointly undertake the venture to establish the new bank named Oriental Bank Plc. 

•* Cymao Holdings Bhd* has been slapped with an unusual market activity (UMA) query on the sharp rise in its share price and volume recently.

Shares of Cymao shot up 26.26% or 13 sen today and settled at 62.5 sen, with 4.78 million shares traded. The 4.78 million shares that were traded today is five times that of yesterday’s volume of 914,800. Over the past month alone, the stock's price shot up by 172% from 23 sen on Nov 12. Currently, the group has a market capitalisation of RM46.9 million. 

•* AWC Bhd* has secured a hospital support services contract from the Health Ministry worth RM107.89 million. The group said the ministry had accepted its tender to provide the services for the Shah Alam Hospital. The contract period will be five years, commencing Jan 1, 2021 to Dec 31, 2025.

KPOWER (BUY↔;TP↑MYR6.46@17x FY22 P/E) won 4-year MYR296m EPCC of mini hydropower plant in Perak.  

♦ Positive on the 2nd win from Kangsar Hydro- to continue secure RE jobs. This RPT (Deputy Chairman and group MD Mustakim Mat Nun and group CFO Amirul Afif Abd Aziz hold directorships and major stakes in OHP Ventures which owned 85% stake in Kangsar Hydro) is arrived on arm’s length basis.

♦ Post win, orderbook lifted to MYR1.73bn and maintain earnings as YTD win of MYR544m in FY21F is within our MYR1bn replenishment. Gross margins estimated at 15-20%.

♦ TP is lifted to MYR6.46 (from MYR5.70) pegged to higher 17x (from 15x) FY22 P/E in tandem with valuation expansion seen in renewable energy space (trading >20x P/E) in view of better prospect as evident by greener commitment made by big corps i.e. Tenaga and Petronas.

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Rakuten recommends these stocks for 2021

App Asia — expects to see significant contributions from FY21 onwards
Target price: RM1.18
— Sole service provider for electronic bank confirmation platform (eConfirm.my) in collaboration with Malaysian Institute of Accountants
— Expects to see significant contributions from FY21 onwards; agreement will last for 12 years until 2030, with usage fee of RM15 per successful confirmation
— Anticipates all auditors and banks operating in Malaysia to adopt this e-confirmation platform; it now has 13 major banks and over 400 audit firms participating, covering about 80% of the market
— Next catalyst for growth is their new collaboration with Telekom Malaysia Bhd subsidiary to transform the Yellow Pages Business Directory into a Digital Business Community of e-marketplace
— Presently in a net cash position, with RM13.8 million, and zero borrowings

D'nonce Technology — Riding on the booming glove and E&E sectors
Target price: 88 sen
— Riding on the booming glove sector and electrical & electronics (E&E) sector, seen achieving record earnings in FY21 as their packaging boxes are used by major glove manufacturers
— It makes glove boxes in its Sadao facility in Thailand, where it supplies to major glove makers such as Top Glove Mercator, Halyard, and Sri Trang, with an estimated 30% of the local market share
— Earnings contribution from the Sadao facility will gradually come on stream in 2HFY21 and full contribution from the expansion by FY22
— Also serves the E&E sector with major multinational companies of memory drives and semiconductor manufacturers, providing cleanroom services, box-build assembly, and manufactures plastic components parts mainly used in PCB assembly

RCE Capital — Ample growth room in Malaysia civil servants
Target price: RM2.39
— Provides financing to about 80,000 civil servant customers via salary deduction scheme; ample room to grow given its 5% market share of Malaysia civil servants
— Minimal impact from loan moratorium (less than 0.6% of accounts) as it is a non-bank financial institution providing personal loans
— Benefits from a low interest rate environment, which lowers its cost of funding
— Show consistent improvements of asset quality over the years, while its non-performing loans ratio is at a healthy 4%
— Enjoys net interest margin of about 8%, higher than industry peers; backed by an anticipated dividend yield of over 5%
— Potential inclusion into KLSE Shariah counter by end-2021

Scomnet — Robust earnings growth in medical cables
Target price: RM2.68
— Medical cables to see robust earnings growth on the back of improved demand amidst the Covid-19 pandemic
— Embarking on a multi-year expansion to double production capacity for cables approved by Food & Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medical Agency (EMA)
— Major key clients, namely US-based Edward Lifesciences, Denmark-based Ambu and Mermaid Medical, are major global cardiovascular medical devices companies
— Expected to deliver its strongest-ever performance on record with supercharged growth in earnings per share in FY20 (up 59%) and FY21 (up 68.3%)
— Balance sheet remains healthy with cash pile growing to RM30.8m, and zero borrowings

TCS — Growing orderbook in construction
Target price: RM0.70
— Growing orderbook since July 2020 after listing having secured RM537.7 million new projects with a total outstanding orderbook of RM898.27m with earnings visibility for 3 years.
— Proposed strategic acquisition of 25% stake in Southern Score Sdn Bhd (existing client in property development) for RM30 million via issuance of 60 million new shares at RM0.50. It comes with an aggregate profit of RM60 million over 3 years (RM5 million for TCS based on 25% stake).
— Corporate exercise sweetener of one free warrant for every two shares
— Tenderbook of over RM2 billion, with order book expected grow to over RM1 billion
— Target price of RM0.70 based on 9 times price of earnings ratio FY21

AirAsia — Travel restriction to lift on vaccine development
— Successful development of vaccines will lift cross-borders travel restriction and worldwide travel ban
— While share price is in consolidation mode now following the previous run, Rakuten expects buying momentum to resume as it is a potential recovery play

Genting — Earnings recovery seen moving forward
— Its plantation business under Genting Plantation is expected to benefit from rising crude palm oil prices, while Genting Singapore is expected to see earnings recovery due to well-controlled Covid-19 cases in the country.
— Chart-wise, share price is trading above all key moving averages line, which is a good sign

Genting Malaysia — Paving its road to recovery
— Increasing buying interest seen so far, with anticipation of significant improvement in arrivals to its resorts
— Chart-wise, it is trading above all key moving averages line which is also a positive sign

Malaysia Airports — Airline traffic is expected to improve
—Airline traffic expected to pick up gradually, in tandem with lifting of travel ban on successful vaccine discovery
— Share price has retraced from a recent high of RM5.94, so the current level offers accumulation opportunity for recovery play

Tenaga Nasional — Resilient business model with decent dividend yield 
— Business model remains resilient with a decent dividend yield
— Chart-wise, share price has pulled back from RM11.80, thus present level could be a good entry opportunity for recovery theme stock

顶级手套季度净利料破20亿


顶级手套(Top Glove Corp Bhd)将于明天(9日)公布截至11月杪2021财政年首季的业绩。分析员预计将再创季度纪录,净利不低于20亿令吉。

最重要的是,由于录得超额盈利,顶级手套的股东可能期望获得巨额股息。

根据彭博社,研究该全球最大橡胶手套制造商的19名投资分析员中,截至明年8月杪2021财年的平均全年净利预测为86亿1000万令吉。这意味着顶级手套每个季度必须取得21亿5000万令吉的平均净利,才能达到市场的普遍预期。

21亿5000万令吉的季度净利,将比2020财年第四季的12亿9000万令吉纪录高位高出66.4%。与去年同期相比,涨幅更令人惊叹,是一年前1亿1143万令吉的18倍。

同样,市场也预计全年营业额将创纪录,普遍预期为197亿4000万令吉,意味着该公司将实现49亿4000万令吉的季度营业额,得益于销量激增和平均售价大涨。

顶级手套2020财年末季和2019财年首季的营业额分别为31亿1000万令吉和12亿1000万令吉。

彭博社数据显示,大多数分析员看好顶级手套,其中15人给予“买入”或同等评级(75%)、而4人建议“守住”(20%)及1人建议“卖出”(5%)。

其中,马银行金英分析员Lee Yen Lin是最为看好的分析员,估计2021财年净利达112亿2000万令吉,相当于每季度28亿1000万令吉,而最悲观的预测是全年净利47亿2000万令吉,或每季度11亿8000万令吉。

有者认为,首财季的收益对该集团至关重要,因随后季度的生产受到员工感染新冠肺炎的影响。

乐天交易研究副总裁刘松增指出,顶级手套有望在2021财年首季交出纪录收益,且将符合超过20亿令吉的市场预期,受益于手套产量规模经济扩大,加上平均售价上升,因随着全球新冠疫情反扑,手套需求依然高企。

Fortress Capital Asset Management投资顾问兼董事Geoffrey Ng持类似观点,认同顶级手套可能在2021财年首季发布创纪录收益,尽管外籍劳工宿舍问题,导致巴生厂房从11月17日至12月14日实施加强行动限制令(EMCO),因而停工一个月。

顶级手套此前估计,暂时停工只会导致2021财年的销售收入减少约3%。这是计入3周EMCO及50%生产将受影响的预期。此外,该集团预计不会因暂时停工而有任何重大订单取消。

受手套平均价走高及需求持续强劲带动,贺特佳(Hartalega Holdings Bhd)和速柏玛(Supermax Corp Bhd)在最新季度业绩都出现指数级增长。

截至9月杪2021财年第二季,贺特佳净利增长4倍至5亿4496万令吉的纪录高位,而去年同期为1亿387万令吉。季度营业额从7亿942万令吉,大涨近90%至13亿5000万令吉。按季比较,净利由2亿1972万令吉增长逾一倍,而营业额也从9亿2009万令吉劲升46.29%。

近期将纳入富时隆综指成分股的速柏玛,截至9月杪2021财年首季净利飙升近31倍至7亿8952万令吉的季度纪录,一年前为2475万令吉。季度营业额也由3亿6994万令吉,增长2倍至13亿5000万令吉。按季比较,净利较3亿9962万令吉增长近一倍,营业额也从9亿2912万令吉扬升45.57%。

创纪录收益伴随着丰厚股息?

在录得超额盈利的情况下,顶级手套的现金储备激增。因此,Fortress Capital的Ng认为,该公司有能力以现金形式向股东派发特别股息。

他不排除通过在公开市场回购的库存股,以股代息。

自9月以来,该集团斥12亿8000万令吉回购公司股票,超过截至8月31日的12亿1000万令吉现金余额。

截至12月2日,库存股为1亿7778万股,相当于2.17%股权。

鉴于盈利前景乐观,顶级手套主席丹斯里林伟才承诺,2021财年的周息率至少6%。

顶级手套董事部在2020财年宣布派发每股11.83仙的股息,而2019财年为2.5仙。

根据昨日收盘的6.60令吉,6%的周息率意味着每股股息为39.6仙。

Saturday, December 5, 2020

觀察K線多空出擊 股市淘金

永泓的操作方法,除了融會貫通朱家泓的心法外,也有一些屬於自己的獨特觀點。很多人在股市裡強調「紀律」,多半是指嚴守停損、停利的時機點,但永泓提到,「耐心等待正確的出手點,這也是紀律!」很多時候,想要從股市裡淘金,買進的那瞬間就已經定了勝負。

其實技術分析並不艱澀,尤其與基本面、籌碼面相較之下,技術面是三者之中,最有SOP(標準作業程序)可以依循的一派,如果想要用技術分析來做波段操作的話,該怎麼做呢?以下為永泓分享他的操作步驟:

步驟1》透過量化、質化分析,找出強、弱勢股
首先,在每天收盤後,可透過「量化」的方式,利用個股的漲跌幅,找出強勢股、弱勢股,漲幅愈多愈強勢;反之,跌幅愈深愈弱勢。而個股漲跌幅的排序,投資人可善用免費軟體協助。

接著,再予以「質化」分析,也就是觀察個股的線圖,從排名最前面的個股開始觀察,找出可操作的個股。

而永泓會先看週線圖,於做多時,從強勢股中找到做多標的,口訣為「底底高、頭頭高,回後買上漲。」判斷的方式為:K線上漲突破下降切線,並突破前波高點,而出現的新高點比前一波高,即為「頭頭高」。在回檔後,修正不破前波低點,新的底部比前一波底部高,即為「底底高」,接著若又上漲突破前波高點(詳見圖1),在突破時,即為切入點。