Friday, December 11, 2020

Technical Analyzer

Gamuda (5398)
Sector: Construction
Sub-sector: Construction
Outlook: Breakout MYR3.85
Levels: MYR4.00, MYR4.20
Exit: MYR3.70
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

MR D.I.Y Group (5296)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Retailers
Outlook: Breakout MYR3.00
Levels: MYR3.16, MYR3.30
Exit: MYR2.68
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Malayan Flour Mills (3662)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Food & Beverages
Outlook: Breakout MYR0.70
Levels: MYR0.75, MYR0.79
Exit: MYR0.66
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Parlo (0022)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Travel, Leisure & Hospitality
Outlook: Breakout MYR0.63
Levels: MYR0.69, MYR0.74
Exit: MYR0.56
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

CCK Consolidated (7035) (RM0.625): Technical Buy
Targets: RM0.67, 0.77
Stop: RM0.56

TCS Group (0221) (RM0.535): Technical Buy 
Targets: RM0.59, 0.65
Stop: RM0.45

DUFU (RM3.17-Not-rated) - Riding on the strong HDD markets. Dufu anticipates another strong 4Q20 results (translating into a better FY20 vs FY19), driven largely by the high HDD demand from the enterprise sector and cloud storage. Dufu’s risk mitigation strategy in 2015 to diversify into the non-HDD segment (offering high value creation and carrying better margins than the HDD segment) has started to bear fruits. Valuation is undemanding at 32x trailing P/E (48% below peers), supported by a RM26m net cash. Trend Pending a downtrend line breakout.

R1-R2: 3.30-3.50
LT objective: 3.80 
S1-S2: 3.00-2.90
Cut: 2.88 

Corporate News

 •In response to Bursa Malaysia's unusual market activity query yesterday, Cymao Holdings Bhd said the group is in the final stage of discussion with several parties on a potential new viable business venture to reduce the plywood maker's reliance on its core business. Cymao said in light of the plywood industry remaining challenging, the group has been exploring new business opportunities to expand its core business or diversify its businesses to reduce reliance on the existing core business, as well as to expand the company's earnings base.

•AirAsia Group Bhd group CEO Tan Sri Tony Fernandes was quoted as saying that the company is currently in discussion with India-based conglomerate Tata Group on the future of their joint venture, AirAsia (India) Ltd. Fernandes was quoted as saying at a CAPA Centre for Aviation live event yesterday that India's aviation industry has been a competitive market which was tough for outsiders to come into. 

•Bermaz Auto Bhd’s (BAuto) net profit for the second quarter ended Oct 31, 2020 rose 22% year-on-year to RM24.79 million versus RM20.39 million, boosted by improvement in domestic sales. Revenue climbed 31% y-o-y to RM599.84 million, compared with RM457.17 million a year ago.

In light of better earnings, BAuto declared a second interim dividend of 1.25 sen per share for the financial year ending April 30, 2021, which will be paid on Feb 5 next year. This is lower than the 2.75 sen per share paid a year ago. On a quarterly basis, BAuto’s net profit jumped 168% from RM9.25 million in the preceding quarter, as revenue rose 34% from RM448.894 million last quarter. 

•Poh Kong Holdings Bhd had a strong kick-off to its new financial year with an 81.1% jump in net profit to RM14.64 million for the first quarter ended Oct 31, 2020, from RM8.08 million a year ago, as its retail business saw an uptrend, following the relaxation of the movement control order. Earnings per share rose to 3.57 sen from 1.97 sen. Quarterly revenue rose 8.2% to RM221.91 million from RM204.99 million. No dividend was declared for the quarter. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, Poh Kong's first quarter net profit is higher by 82.7% compared with RM8.01 million in the preceding quarter, while revenue was up 23.8% from RM179.3 million.

•BIMB Holdings Bhd (BHB) has obtained approval from the Minister of Finance and Bank Negara Malaysia for its proposed internal reorganisation and distribution and capital repayment, which will pave the way for the transfer of its listing to its subsidiary, Bank Islam Malaysia Bhd. Upon completion of the proposed exercise, BHB’s listing status will be transferred to Bank Islam, which will emerge as the one and only full-fledged Islamic financial institution to be listed in the region which will enhance its corporate stature. The listing is said will allow Bank Islam to better position itself in the Islamic finance and Islamic capital market and capitalise on the growth of both markets, in its efforts to expand its customer base. 

•After the massive share buy-back exercise undertaken by Top Glove Corp Bhd since September, its chairman Tan Sri Lim Wee Chai has picked up the baton by buying 4.28 million shares in his own capacity. The shares were bought in two transactions yesterday and today, but the transacted prices were not disclosed. Following the purchase, Lim has a direct interest of 26.13% in the world's largest glove maker, plus an indirect interest of 8.63%. 

•UMW Holdings Bhd’s automotive segment is on track to meet its full-year sales target, supported by strong sales in November 2020 by both subsidiary UMW Toyota Motor Sdn Bhd (UMWT) and associate company Perusahaan Otomobil Kedua Sdn Bhd (Perodua). The group said the automotive segment had steadily recovered from the adverse impact of the Covid-19 containment measures earlier this year, with demand boosted by the sales tax exemption incentive announced by the government, effective June 15 to Dec 31, 2020. It said UMWT is poised to exceed its revised sales target of 53,000 units for the year, after selling 6,267 units in November 2020, which brought total sales to 50,074 units for the first 11 months of this year. 

•KUB Malaysia Bhd (KUB) said the fulfilment of the conditions under the Sale and Purchase Agreement signed between its indirect wholly-owned subsidiary KUB Agro Holdings Sdn Bhd, and Beradin Plantation Sdn Bhd, has been extended by 30 days until Jan 8, 2021. Under the agreement made on June 10, KUB Agro Holdings had proposed to dispose of two oil palm estates in Kluang, Johor to Beradin Plantation for RM158 million cash. 

•Berjaya Land Bhd (BLand), controlled by tycoon Tan Sri Vincent Tan, has continued to accumulate shares in convenience store chain operator 7-Eleven Malaysia Holdings Bhd over the past three months. BLand said its wholly-owned subsidiary Nural Enterprise Sdn Bhd acquired a total of 8.22 million shares, representing about 0.73% equity interest in 7-Eleven Malaysia in the open market between Sept 11 and Dec 8. The shares were acquired for a total cash consideration of RM10.96 million or an average of RM1.33 per share. As a result, BLand and its subsidiaries now have a 5.28% stake in 7-Eleven Malaysia.

Bermaz Auto Berhad - Sales recovery shifting to higher gear (Maintain Add with a lower TP of RM1.70)

Lee Swee Kiat Group - A value-accretive collaboration with Cuckoo (Maintain Add with a higher TP of RM1.60)

Agribusiness - Higher imports cushioned stock decline (Maintain Neutral)

Thursday, December 10, 2020

Technical Analyzer

Taliworks Corporation (8524)
Sector: Utilities
Sub-sector: Gas, Water & Multi-utilities
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.83
Levels: MYR0.855, MYR0.90
Exit: MYR0.79
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Dayang Enterprise (5141)
Sector: Energy
Sub-sector: Energy Infrastructure, Equipment & Svcs
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR1.28
Levels: MYR1.33, MYR1.38
Exit: MYR1.15
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

SDS Group (0212)
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Food & Beverages
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.235
Levels: MYR0.26, MYR0.285
Exit: MYR0.21
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Master-Pack Group (7029)
Sector: Industrial Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Packaging Materials
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR1.96
Levels: MYR2.05, MYR2.20
Exit: MYR1.82
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

Corporate News

 •The government has decided to withdraw the approval of indirect property acquisition by Tamaco Plantation Sdn Bhd from TH Plantations Bhd on Dec 4, for further scrutiny and other factors. The government maintained that the indirect property acquisition application by Tamaco through the subscription of 100% shares from two TH Plantations subsidiaries — Bumi Suria Ventures Sdn Bhd and Maju Warisanmas Sdn Bhd — was subject to property acquisition guidelines which have been in effect since March 1, 2014. The guidelines stipulated that dilution of properties by Bumiputera interests via direct or indirect acquisition by non-Bumiputera interests is based on retention of at least 30% equity ownership for the latter.

•India-based conglomerate Tata Group will stop dues payment by AirAsia (India) Ltd to AirAsia Group Bhd, if the latter does not provide funding to their low-cost airline joint venture before Dec 31, 2020, The Economic Times reported, citing recently-added clauses in the AirAsia India shareholder agreement. According to the report, Tata will also start deducting the dues and setting them off against equity shares in AirAsia India, if its JV partner AirAsia Group is unable to bring in funds by subscribing to a rights offer of at least 300 crore rupee (about RM166 million).

•* Malaysian Resources Corp Bhd (MRCB)* will be participating in the United Nations Global Compact’s CFO Taskforce. The group said its membership in the task force reinforces its commitment to pursuing the Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs), and it will be able to provide an Asean perspective on developing strategies to accelerate the delivery of the SDGs within the private sector. MRCB’s chief corporate officer Amarjit Chhina is the only member from Malaysia and the first in Asean to be invited to join the CFO Taskforce. There, he will be working with peers from other companies worldwide on a two-year programme to implement the CFO Principles on Integrated SDG Investments and Finance. 

•* Top Glove Corp Bhd's* first-quarter (1QFY21) net profit surged to RM2.38 billion from RM111.43 million a year earlier, as revenue rose to RM4.76 billion from RM1.21 billion, underpinned by continued strong global rubber glove demand due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Top Glove declared an interim dividend of 16.5 sen a share to reward its approximately 100,000 public shareholders. Top Glove said it attained the highest ever quarterly sales revenue of RM4.76 billion in 1QFY21, representing an increase of 294% compared with 1QFY20. Separately, Top Glove executive chairman Tan Sri Dr Lim Wee Chai said he expects the production lines in the group's temporarily-closed 28 factories in Klang to be fully operational within the next two- to three weeks. "Seven factories have resumed their operations since yesterday under stage one. Hopefully, we can start stage two with another seven factories to resume work by this weekend," he said. The remaining 14 factories will recommence activities in the following two weeks in stages three and four, Lim added.

•* Kumpulan Powernet Bhd (KPower)* has bagged a contract worth RM296 million for a mini-hydropower plant in Perak. The group said its wholly-owned subsidiary KPower Engineering Sdn Bhd had received and accepted a letter of award yesterday from Kangsar Hidro Sdn Bhd to undertake the engineering, design, procurement, construction, commissioning and completion of a mini-hydropower plant, with a total capacity of 27.3MW in Sungai Singor, Perak.

•* My EG Services Bhd (MyEG)* is planning to raise up to RM407 million via placement to fund the development of hostels for foreign workers under an ongoing project, develop healthcare-related services, and to buy fixed assets like kiosks for the online renewal of car and motorcycle road tax under its e-government concession business. It intends to place out up to 220 million new shares that represent up to 6.29% of its total issued shares to third-party investors to be identified. 

•* Public Bank Bhd* has denied any involvement in a joint venture with G Capital Bhd to set up a new full-fledged commercial bank in Cambodia. Public Bank clarified that one of the parties involved in the venture, Datuk Phan Ying Tong, was acting in his own capacity, as he had resigned from all of his positions in the bank. Yesterday, G Capital announced it has entered into a heads of agreement with Phan and Cambodian firm E S Packaging Co Ltd to jointly undertake the venture to establish the new bank named Oriental Bank Plc. 

•* Cymao Holdings Bhd* has been slapped with an unusual market activity (UMA) query on the sharp rise in its share price and volume recently.

Shares of Cymao shot up 26.26% or 13 sen today and settled at 62.5 sen, with 4.78 million shares traded. The 4.78 million shares that were traded today is five times that of yesterday’s volume of 914,800. Over the past month alone, the stock's price shot up by 172% from 23 sen on Nov 12. Currently, the group has a market capitalisation of RM46.9 million. 

•* AWC Bhd* has secured a hospital support services contract from the Health Ministry worth RM107.89 million. The group said the ministry had accepted its tender to provide the services for the Shah Alam Hospital. The contract period will be five years, commencing Jan 1, 2021 to Dec 31, 2025.

KPOWER (BUY↔;TP↑MYR6.46@17x FY22 P/E) won 4-year MYR296m EPCC of mini hydropower plant in Perak.  

♦ Positive on the 2nd win from Kangsar Hydro- to continue secure RE jobs. This RPT (Deputy Chairman and group MD Mustakim Mat Nun and group CFO Amirul Afif Abd Aziz hold directorships and major stakes in OHP Ventures which owned 85% stake in Kangsar Hydro) is arrived on arm’s length basis.

♦ Post win, orderbook lifted to MYR1.73bn and maintain earnings as YTD win of MYR544m in FY21F is within our MYR1bn replenishment. Gross margins estimated at 15-20%.

♦ TP is lifted to MYR6.46 (from MYR5.70) pegged to higher 17x (from 15x) FY22 P/E in tandem with valuation expansion seen in renewable energy space (trading >20x P/E) in view of better prospect as evident by greener commitment made by big corps i.e. Tenaga and Petronas.

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Rakuten recommends these stocks for 2021

App Asia — expects to see significant contributions from FY21 onwards
Target price: RM1.18
— Sole service provider for electronic bank confirmation platform (eConfirm.my) in collaboration with Malaysian Institute of Accountants
— Expects to see significant contributions from FY21 onwards; agreement will last for 12 years until 2030, with usage fee of RM15 per successful confirmation
— Anticipates all auditors and banks operating in Malaysia to adopt this e-confirmation platform; it now has 13 major banks and over 400 audit firms participating, covering about 80% of the market
— Next catalyst for growth is their new collaboration with Telekom Malaysia Bhd subsidiary to transform the Yellow Pages Business Directory into a Digital Business Community of e-marketplace
— Presently in a net cash position, with RM13.8 million, and zero borrowings

D'nonce Technology — Riding on the booming glove and E&E sectors
Target price: 88 sen
— Riding on the booming glove sector and electrical & electronics (E&E) sector, seen achieving record earnings in FY21 as their packaging boxes are used by major glove manufacturers
— It makes glove boxes in its Sadao facility in Thailand, where it supplies to major glove makers such as Top Glove Mercator, Halyard, and Sri Trang, with an estimated 30% of the local market share
— Earnings contribution from the Sadao facility will gradually come on stream in 2HFY21 and full contribution from the expansion by FY22
— Also serves the E&E sector with major multinational companies of memory drives and semiconductor manufacturers, providing cleanroom services, box-build assembly, and manufactures plastic components parts mainly used in PCB assembly

RCE Capital — Ample growth room in Malaysia civil servants
Target price: RM2.39
— Provides financing to about 80,000 civil servant customers via salary deduction scheme; ample room to grow given its 5% market share of Malaysia civil servants
— Minimal impact from loan moratorium (less than 0.6% of accounts) as it is a non-bank financial institution providing personal loans
— Benefits from a low interest rate environment, which lowers its cost of funding
— Show consistent improvements of asset quality over the years, while its non-performing loans ratio is at a healthy 4%
— Enjoys net interest margin of about 8%, higher than industry peers; backed by an anticipated dividend yield of over 5%
— Potential inclusion into KLSE Shariah counter by end-2021

Scomnet — Robust earnings growth in medical cables
Target price: RM2.68
— Medical cables to see robust earnings growth on the back of improved demand amidst the Covid-19 pandemic
— Embarking on a multi-year expansion to double production capacity for cables approved by Food & Drug Administration (FDA) and European Medical Agency (EMA)
— Major key clients, namely US-based Edward Lifesciences, Denmark-based Ambu and Mermaid Medical, are major global cardiovascular medical devices companies
— Expected to deliver its strongest-ever performance on record with supercharged growth in earnings per share in FY20 (up 59%) and FY21 (up 68.3%)
— Balance sheet remains healthy with cash pile growing to RM30.8m, and zero borrowings

TCS — Growing orderbook in construction
Target price: RM0.70
— Growing orderbook since July 2020 after listing having secured RM537.7 million new projects with a total outstanding orderbook of RM898.27m with earnings visibility for 3 years.
— Proposed strategic acquisition of 25% stake in Southern Score Sdn Bhd (existing client in property development) for RM30 million via issuance of 60 million new shares at RM0.50. It comes with an aggregate profit of RM60 million over 3 years (RM5 million for TCS based on 25% stake).
— Corporate exercise sweetener of one free warrant for every two shares
— Tenderbook of over RM2 billion, with order book expected grow to over RM1 billion
— Target price of RM0.70 based on 9 times price of earnings ratio FY21

AirAsia — Travel restriction to lift on vaccine development
— Successful development of vaccines will lift cross-borders travel restriction and worldwide travel ban
— While share price is in consolidation mode now following the previous run, Rakuten expects buying momentum to resume as it is a potential recovery play

Genting — Earnings recovery seen moving forward
— Its plantation business under Genting Plantation is expected to benefit from rising crude palm oil prices, while Genting Singapore is expected to see earnings recovery due to well-controlled Covid-19 cases in the country.
— Chart-wise, share price is trading above all key moving averages line, which is a good sign

Genting Malaysia — Paving its road to recovery
— Increasing buying interest seen so far, with anticipation of significant improvement in arrivals to its resorts
— Chart-wise, it is trading above all key moving averages line which is also a positive sign

Malaysia Airports — Airline traffic is expected to improve
—Airline traffic expected to pick up gradually, in tandem with lifting of travel ban on successful vaccine discovery
— Share price has retraced from a recent high of RM5.94, so the current level offers accumulation opportunity for recovery play

Tenaga Nasional — Resilient business model with decent dividend yield 
— Business model remains resilient with a decent dividend yield
— Chart-wise, share price has pulled back from RM11.80, thus present level could be a good entry opportunity for recovery theme stock

顶级手套季度净利料破20亿


顶级手套(Top Glove Corp Bhd)将于明天(9日)公布截至11月杪2021财政年首季的业绩。分析员预计将再创季度纪录,净利不低于20亿令吉。

最重要的是,由于录得超额盈利,顶级手套的股东可能期望获得巨额股息。

根据彭博社,研究该全球最大橡胶手套制造商的19名投资分析员中,截至明年8月杪2021财年的平均全年净利预测为86亿1000万令吉。这意味着顶级手套每个季度必须取得21亿5000万令吉的平均净利,才能达到市场的普遍预期。

21亿5000万令吉的季度净利,将比2020财年第四季的12亿9000万令吉纪录高位高出66.4%。与去年同期相比,涨幅更令人惊叹,是一年前1亿1143万令吉的18倍。

同样,市场也预计全年营业额将创纪录,普遍预期为197亿4000万令吉,意味着该公司将实现49亿4000万令吉的季度营业额,得益于销量激增和平均售价大涨。

顶级手套2020财年末季和2019财年首季的营业额分别为31亿1000万令吉和12亿1000万令吉。

彭博社数据显示,大多数分析员看好顶级手套,其中15人给予“买入”或同等评级(75%)、而4人建议“守住”(20%)及1人建议“卖出”(5%)。

其中,马银行金英分析员Lee Yen Lin是最为看好的分析员,估计2021财年净利达112亿2000万令吉,相当于每季度28亿1000万令吉,而最悲观的预测是全年净利47亿2000万令吉,或每季度11亿8000万令吉。

有者认为,首财季的收益对该集团至关重要,因随后季度的生产受到员工感染新冠肺炎的影响。

乐天交易研究副总裁刘松增指出,顶级手套有望在2021财年首季交出纪录收益,且将符合超过20亿令吉的市场预期,受益于手套产量规模经济扩大,加上平均售价上升,因随着全球新冠疫情反扑,手套需求依然高企。

Fortress Capital Asset Management投资顾问兼董事Geoffrey Ng持类似观点,认同顶级手套可能在2021财年首季发布创纪录收益,尽管外籍劳工宿舍问题,导致巴生厂房从11月17日至12月14日实施加强行动限制令(EMCO),因而停工一个月。

顶级手套此前估计,暂时停工只会导致2021财年的销售收入减少约3%。这是计入3周EMCO及50%生产将受影响的预期。此外,该集团预计不会因暂时停工而有任何重大订单取消。

受手套平均价走高及需求持续强劲带动,贺特佳(Hartalega Holdings Bhd)和速柏玛(Supermax Corp Bhd)在最新季度业绩都出现指数级增长。

截至9月杪2021财年第二季,贺特佳净利增长4倍至5亿4496万令吉的纪录高位,而去年同期为1亿387万令吉。季度营业额从7亿942万令吉,大涨近90%至13亿5000万令吉。按季比较,净利由2亿1972万令吉增长逾一倍,而营业额也从9亿2009万令吉劲升46.29%。

近期将纳入富时隆综指成分股的速柏玛,截至9月杪2021财年首季净利飙升近31倍至7亿8952万令吉的季度纪录,一年前为2475万令吉。季度营业额也由3亿6994万令吉,增长2倍至13亿5000万令吉。按季比较,净利较3亿9962万令吉增长近一倍,营业额也从9亿2912万令吉扬升45.57%。

创纪录收益伴随着丰厚股息?

在录得超额盈利的情况下,顶级手套的现金储备激增。因此,Fortress Capital的Ng认为,该公司有能力以现金形式向股东派发特别股息。

他不排除通过在公开市场回购的库存股,以股代息。

自9月以来,该集团斥12亿8000万令吉回购公司股票,超过截至8月31日的12亿1000万令吉现金余额。

截至12月2日,库存股为1亿7778万股,相当于2.17%股权。

鉴于盈利前景乐观,顶级手套主席丹斯里林伟才承诺,2021财年的周息率至少6%。

顶级手套董事部在2020财年宣布派发每股11.83仙的股息,而2019财年为2.5仙。

根据昨日收盘的6.60令吉,6%的周息率意味着每股股息为39.6仙。

Saturday, December 5, 2020

觀察K線多空出擊 股市淘金

永泓的操作方法,除了融會貫通朱家泓的心法外,也有一些屬於自己的獨特觀點。很多人在股市裡強調「紀律」,多半是指嚴守停損、停利的時機點,但永泓提到,「耐心等待正確的出手點,這也是紀律!」很多時候,想要從股市裡淘金,買進的那瞬間就已經定了勝負

其實技術分析並不艱澀,尤其與基本面、籌碼面相較之下,技術面是三者之中,最有SOP(標準作業程序)可以依循的一派,如果想要用技術分析來做波段操作的話,該怎麼做呢?以下為永泓分享他的操作步驟:

步驟1》透過量化、質化分析,找出強、弱勢股
首先,在每天收盤後,可透過「量化」的方式,利用個股的漲跌幅,找出強勢股、弱勢股,漲幅愈多愈強勢;反之,跌幅愈深愈弱勢。而個股漲跌幅的排序,投資人可善用免費軟體協助。

接著,再予以「質化」分析,也就是觀察個股的線圖,從排名最前面的個股開始觀察,找出可操作的個股。

而永泓會先看週線圖,於做多時,從強勢股中找到做多標的,口訣為「底底高、頭頭高,回後買上漲。」判斷的方式為:K線上漲突破下降切線,並突破前波高點,而出現的新高點比前一波高,即為「頭頭高」。在回檔後,修正不破前波低點,新的底部比前一波底部高,即為「底底高」,接著若又上漲突破前波高點(詳見圖1),在突破時,即為切入點。



看線圖進出 年獲利1倍

要使用技術分析達到理想報酬,就必須要能「遵守紀律」,拆解朱家泓的操作流程,就能發現他對於「紀律」的重視。他會從大盤的線圖開始看起,確認現在景氣的狀況後再看類股線圖,觀察有沒有最近關注的題材,「基本上台灣股市就是金融與電子在撐,所以我會比較常看這兩類。」朱家泓說。

接著,將漲幅3.5%以上,且基本面、技術面都好的個股列入觀察名單,然後觀察線圖找進場時機,「我通常會有5、60檔在觀察,看到時機到就立刻進場。」朱家泓說。

此外,他會設定好停損位置,將停損價貼在電腦旁,朱家泓說,「最簡單是以進場的那根K棒最低點就是當天股價最低點為最後停損點。」接下來他只要守著線圖,只要停損不破就不賣,一旦破停損點就一定賣出。有學生因為判斷錯誤著急打電話向朱家泓「求救」,他笑著說:「人性就是這樣,你叫他順向操作,他就會不小心逆向,所以說要照紀律來。」

致勝心法➊
觀察線圖,從4面向找出強勢股

1. 波浪型態》「頭頭高、底底高」

朱家泓強調,波浪型態是技術分析很重要的基礎。在選股上,波浪型態要看的就是趨勢,從趨勢中找尋目前行情走在「多頭」的股票。朱家泓在教導趨勢時有個口訣:「頭頭高、底底高」就是多頭;「頭頭低、底底低」就是空頭。在選股時,要從千檔股票中,找尋多頭趨勢的股票,也就是日線圖

「頭頭高、底底高」,然後在當日收盤價突破前日最高價的時候進場。

2. 移動平均線》5日、10日、20日均線多頭排列

移動平均線(Moving Average)簡稱為均線,均線就是把一段期間的收盤價加總再平均而算出的數值,一般常用5日、10日、20日、60日、240日均線。

當短期均線在上,長期均線在下依序排列,就是「多頭排列」。每條均線都往上, 且呈多頭排列,就表示股價會長期上漲,這種股票就適合中長期做多(詳見圖1)。



3. K線》收盤價突破昨日K線最高點

K線會反映出當天市場的基本面、消息面及籌碼面,組成K線的基本元素有4個,分別是開盤價、收盤價、最高價、最低價(詳見圖2),如果收盤價大於開盤價就會是紅K線;收盤價低於開盤價就會是黑K線。


朱家泓認為,看K線不能只以1天做判斷, 容易受到突發狀況影響,要從2天K線看多空力道是否延續或變化。在多頭排列的股票,可以將收盤價與昨日K線比較,看收盤價是否突破昨日K線最高點,表示股價將會轉強(詳見圖3)。


4. 成交量》底部價上漲且成交量放大

看K線時也要觀察成交量變化,看成交量主要是觀察籌碼的趨勢,可以幫助確認K線的能量大小。成交量完全取決於收盤價是收漲收跌,收跌的話成交量會呈現綠色、收漲成交量呈現紅色、收平成交量呈現白色。

當波浪型態呈多頭趨勢、均線呈多頭排列、收盤價也突破昨日最高點,此時可以再搭配看成交量,如果股價在上漲過程中成交量開始放大,投資人此時便可以進場。但朱家泓也強調,成交量的參考適用於中大型股,小型股因為成交量少容易受人為控制, 比較不適用。

致勝心法➋
按步驟觀察訊號,決定進出場時點

進出場訊號也同樣使用4大金剛來判斷:

步驟1》出現第一根帶量的中長紅K棒,或當日收盤價突破前日最高價的時候買進。

步驟2》順勢操作,判斷目前趨勢是多頭則順勢做多、空頭順勢做空,盤整的股票則等待訊號出現後再進場。

步驟3》短線操作看5日線,中長期看10 日線、20日均線,股價沒有跌破均線就續抱,跌破均線就出場。

步驟4》設立停損、停利點,如果股價爆量收長黑棒,就該停利出場。而進場的那根K棒最低點,就是最後的停損點。


致勝心法➌
搭配KD與MACD輔助參考

除了上述4大金剛, 指標也可以作為判斷的參考之一,較常使用的指標為KD、MACD,朱家泓建議選一個自己習慣的指標觀察即可,像是他自己習慣看KD 值。另外,他也強調在進場時可以參考指標數值,但賣出時不可以只看指標數值,而是要以K線圖的4大金剛為準。

不管是KD還是MACD,可以看是否為黃金交叉來成為參考買點。以KD值來說,當K 線向上穿過D線就會是所謂的黃金交叉。而當K線走到進場那根K棒最低點,同時KD指標為死亡交叉就應趕快出場。


長線短做法 安心賺飆股波段

你是不是看到股票飆漲卻不敢追,看到股票下跌又怕是要開始走空?技術分析達人朱家泓有一套「長線短做法」,先看週線確認趨勢,再從日線找買點,長線保護短線,讓投資人安心搭上飆股列車。

朱家泓曾經也是迷失在股海中的散戶,進入投資市場的前22年都是賺少賠多,一直到了57歲開始學習技術線圖,才發現圖上的價量與各式指標,往往領先市場的基本面、消息面和心理面。

散戶因為沒有大戶的消息面,所以不可能預先知道股票的漲跌,但是,只要學會技術線圖,那些知道消息提前買進或賣出的大戶,其操作結果最後都會呈現在技術線圖上,散戶不用消息靈通也能「趨吉避凶」,買到會漲的股票,同時避開波段下跌的股票。

朱家泓用週線保護日線的「長線短做法」該怎麼操作?其實, 投資人只要從週線確認5個多頭訊號,再從日線找買點。由於有週線的長趨勢保護,因此投資人就不用擔心飆股轉為空頭,可以安心賺飆股的上漲波段,而具體操作步驟如下:

步驟1》利用5條件
從週線判斷多空趨勢
投資人先將K線圖由日線轉為週線,檢查週線是否進入多頭趨勢。週線的多頭趨勢剛形成時,不會立即轉向,因此,可以保護日線的短線進出操作。朱家泓表示,要確認週線是否為多頭趨勢,有5個條件:

條件1》股價呈多頭架構
週線的波浪型態要符合「頭頭高、底底高」的多頭架構,也就是一頭比一頭高,代表投資人追價意願高,導致價格還會再創前波高點,回檔修正的底部也是一底比一底高。

朱家泓解釋,所謂的多頭就是股價不斷創新高,但是,股價不可能天天漲,當股價回檔時,如果底部不斷墊高,高點也不斷創高,就代表多頭;相反地,當股價的高點愈來愈低,而且底部持續破底,就代表空頭。至於股價高點不過前高、低點不破前低,則是盤整。

條件2》均線呈多頭排列
要確認多頭走勢的第2個條件就是看移動平均線(MA,以下簡稱均線)。均線是過去某段期間內,依據股價平均價格所畫出來的一條線。短線投資人最常使用的均線是5日均線(5MA),就是當天的收盤價加總前4個交易日的收盤價,再除以5的平均值。在週線圖也是一樣的用法,只是5MA就變成是當週的收盤價加總前4週收盤價,再除以5的平均值。

朱家泓認為,觀察週線趨勢必看5MA、10MA,以及20MA。當股價站上這3條線,且這3條線呈現多頭排列(多頭排列的意思就是短期均線要高於中期均線、中期均線又高於長期均線,也就是5MA>10MA>20MA)就代表多頭趨勢成形,此時均線方向都會跟著向上。

條件3》股價剛起漲
雖然有些股票的週線符合多頭趨勢、均線也呈現多頭排列,但是,股價已經漲了一陣子,這類型股票的排序就要比較後面(詳見圖1)。投資人最好找那些剛發動漲勢的股票,後續股價上漲的週期才會比較久,也才能發揮長線保護短線的功用。

條件4》成交量放大
多頭趨勢是否成立還要搭配成交量來看,股票打底時要有較大成交量,才代表有人願意拿錢出來買股,也才能將股價向上推升。朱家泓對成交量放大的定義是,發動攻擊上漲當週的週K線,其成交量要比前一週的成交量,至少多出1倍以上,如果有2倍以上更好,代表攻擊力道更強勁(詳見圖2),如果當週股價剛起漲,但是成交量上漲未達1倍,還是可以小量進場布局,同時留意下週是否有「補量」。如果量能明顯放大就可以續抱,如果沒有補量,最好先出場。

條件5》KD、MACD指標黃金交叉
除了上面4 個條件之外,技術指標也可以作為判斷的參考。朱家泓較常使用的技術指標有2個:1.隨機指標(stochastic oscillator),又稱為KD指標、2.指數平滑異同移動平均線(Moving Average Convergence/Divergence),又稱為MACD指標。

KD指標的數值會介於0∼100之間,當KD指標中的K值由下往上穿過D值,稱為「黃金交叉」,代表多頭訊號。只要進場前幾天出現「黃金交叉」,之後都算是多頭訊號,代表多頭波段正在進行,直到KD指標出現「死亡交叉」(K值由上往下穿過D值),才代表空頭訊號。

MACD指標屬於中期的技術指標,可以用來看波段的趨勢。它有兩種用法:一種看線圖、一種看柱狀圖。MACD指標和KD指標一樣有2條線,當快速移動平均線(DIF值)由下往上穿過慢速移動平均線(MACD值),就稱為「黃金交叉」,屬於多頭訊號;當DIF值從上往下穿過MACD值,就稱為「死亡交叉」,屬於空頭訊號,用法和KD指標相近。MACD指標的綠色與紅色的柱狀體稱為OSC,當綠色柱狀體轉為紅色或紅色柱狀體愈來愈高,即為多頭趨勢訊號;相反地,當紅色柱狀體轉為綠色,或綠色柱狀體愈來愈高,即為空頭趨勢訊號。

朱家泓說,如果投資人要做多,2個技術指標都符合多頭指標為佳,但是,如果是短線操作的投資人,可以優先看KD指標,因為KD指標對股價變化比較敏感

步驟2》利用2口訣
從日線找尋最佳買點
確認週線的多頭趨勢後,代表股價可能還有好幾週的走勢,此時再轉到日線找買點比較安全,因為週線通常是由5根日線所組成,所以,當週線符合多頭趨勢的5條件後,日線通常也已經進入多頭趨勢,只是股價(日線)有可能剛起漲,也有可能已經漲高了,並不是隨時都可以進場。

朱家泓找尋日線進場點有2個口訣:「回後買上漲」、「盤整突破買進」。前者的意思是,當週線確定轉為多頭後,要在日線回檔再上攻時的第1根紅K線買進;後者的意思是,要在股價剛突破盤整格局,出現第1根紅K線時買進。

口訣1》回後買上漲
當週線確認為多頭後,投資人就可以轉到日線,如果日線正在上漲,就不用追漲買進,可以等股價回檔後再度上漲時再買進,表示股價已經確認止跌,並且將發動新一波攻勢,當天再進場即可。

口訣2》盤整突破買進
有時候週線剛起漲,轉到日線也同樣剛起漲,並且股價突破盤整區,第1根日K線出現時就可以買進。

Friday, December 4, 2020

Technical Analyzer

*DRB-HICOM (1619)*
Sector: Consumer Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Automotive
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR2.10
Levels: MYR2.15, MYR2.30
Exit: MYR1.99
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

*LBS Bina Group (5789)*
Sector: Property
Sub-sector: Property
Outlook: Breakout MYR0.415
Levels: MYR0.44, MYR0.465
Exit: MYR0.39
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

*BCM Alliance (0187)*
Sector: Industrial Prod & Svcs
Sub-sector: Industrial Svcs
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.30
Levels: MYR0.32, MYR0.35
Exit: MYR0.27
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

*Grand-Flo (0056)*
Sector: Technology
Sub-sector: Digital Svcs
Outlook: Pending breakout MYR0.27
Levels: MYR0.29, MYR0.315
Exit: MYR0.245
(time frame: 2-4 weeks)

*UOB Stocks to watch:*

1) N2N (0108); Technical BUY with +21.5% potential return  
*Last: RM0.79 Target: RM0.915, RM0.96 Stop: RM0.695
*Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months
*Syariah: YES

2) WILLOW (0008); Technical BUY on breakout (RM0.455) with +19.8% potential return  
*Last: RM0.440 Target: RM0.52, RM0.545 Stop: RM0.405
*Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months
*Syariah: NO

3) LBS (5789); Technical BUY with +22.6% potential return  
*Last: RM0.42 Target: RM0.49, RM0.515 Stop: RM0.37
*Timeframe: 2 weeks to 2 months
*Syariah: YES

M+ Stocks to watch based on technical analysis: 

Construction: EKOVEST, AZRB, IJM
Building materials: OKA, HUMEIND
Property: LBS, KSL
O&G: DELEUM, MHB, ARMADA
Transportation and logistics: FREIGHT, MAYBULK
Financials: MAYBANK, CIMB
Others: HWGB, MUDA, VERSATL